Smallholder rice growers' perception of erratic rainfall patterns and their coping mechanisms in semi-arid regions

Abstract:

Rice production in semi-arid zones of sub-Saharan Africa faces mounting pressure from irregular rainfall distribution, threatening the livelihoods of millions of smallholder growers who depend on rain-fed paddy cultivation. This research examined how smallholder rice growers in Dodoma Region, Tanzania, perceive erratic rainfall patterns and the range of coping mechanisms they adopt to buffer against weather-related production risks. A cross-sectional survey design was employed between March 2024 and August 2024, drawing on 384 randomly selected farming households across four wards in Bahi and Chamwino districts. Data were gathered through structured questionnaires supplemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and binary logistic regression were used to analyse perceptual responses and the determinants of coping strategy adoption. Results showed that 92.8% of respondents perceived a measurable shift in rainfall behaviour over the preceding decade; 34.2% reported decreased rainfall amount as the most pronounced change, while 26.8% identified a shifted onset of rains and 19.1% cited increased frequency of mid-season dry spells. Only 7.2% reported no perceived change. The dominant short-term coping measures included seed rationing (adopted by 61.4% of households) and pursuit of off-farm income sources (53.7%). Medium-term adaptations centred on planting drought-tolerant rice varieties (47.9%) and adjusting sowing dates to match revised rainfall windows (43.6%). Longer-term resilience strategies such as small-scale irrigation investment (18.3%) and crop diversification away from sole paddy dependence (29.5%) were less common but showed a positive link with farm size, education level, and frequency of extension contact. Binary logistic regression indicated that farming experience (OR = 1.14, p = 0.008), extension service access (OR = 2.37, p<0.001), and proximity to market centres (OR = 1.82, p = 0.011) were significant predictors of adopting at least three coping strategies simultaneously. By contrast, household size and gender of household head did not reach statistical significance after controlling for other covariates. The pathway analysis revealed that coping mechanisms operated along a temporal gradient: immediate responses aimed at protecting household food supply transitioned into planned agronomic adjustments when growers received external information, and eventually matured into capital-intensive resilience investments among better-resourced farmers. Correlation mapping between socioeconomic attributes and strategy uptake further confirmed that extension contact (r = 0.61) and market access (r = 0.56) were the strongest facilitators of diversified coping portfolios. These findings point to the need for targeted extension programming that reaches resource-poor growers, early-warning weather information systems tailored to local cropping calendars, and micro-credit facilities that lower the entry barrier for irrigation adoption. Decision-makers in semi-arid agricultural zones should treat farmer perception data as a planning input alongside meteorological records to design responsive, context-sensitive support packages.