Impact of climate variability on crop productivity and adaptation strategies of farmers

Abstract:

Two farms lie barely eight kilometres apart in the East Hararghe zone, worked by neighbours with similar holdings and the same rainfall record. One has shifted to sorghum and teff with farm-pond backup irrigation; the other still grows maize and wheat in rotation and has seen yield drop by 34 percent over the last decade. That contrast frames the research. Climate variability is reshaping cropping outcomes unevenly, and household-level adaptation choices matter more than average regional trends. This research surveyed 384 farming households across three districts - Haramaya, Kersa and Kombolcha in the East Hararghe zone of Oromia, Ethiopia - between September 2022 and March 2023. Structured interviews, focus group discussions and five-year yield records were combined with district-level NMA weather data covering 2018 to 2023. Farmers reported six major climate stressors, with erratic monsoon onset (27.4 percent) and heat waves (19.8 percent) topping the list. Mean maize yield dropped from 1 824 to 1 428 kg ha⁻¹ between 2018 and 2023, while wheat fell from 1 156 to 892 kg ha⁻¹. Adoption of adaptation strategies followed six patterns led by drought-tolerant varieties (23.8 percent) and shifted sowing dates (21.4 percent). Logistic regression identified four significant drivers of adaptation: land holding (OR 1.84), access to extension advice (OR 2.36), farm pond infrastructure (OR 3.14) and participation in farmer producer organisations (OR 2.07). The results point to infrastructure access and organisational membership as the two levers policy can pull most effectively to broaden adaptation uptake.