Author(s):
Jaybhaye SB, JS Kumbhar, TB Deokate, YC Sale, PV Munde, AK Shinde
Abstract:
As India strengthens its position within the international dried-fruit trade, a comprehensive examination of export instability is essential to optimize trade dynamics and enhance the global competitiveness of value-added horticultural commodities. This study evaluates the volatility of Indian raisin exports from 2005–06 to 204–25, utilizing secondary time-series data from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). The 20 year time period was divided into Period I (2005–06 to 2014–15) and Period II (2015–16 to 2024–25) for comparative assessment. With the objective to analyse export volatility, both the Coefficient of Variation (CV) and the Cuddy-Della
Valle Instability Index (CDVI) were employed to assess market fluctuations in raisin exports from India and export destination-wise performance. The empirical findings revealed that over the 20-year period, the instability indices (CDVI) for exported raisin volume, value and unit prices were 45.88 per cent, 51.36 per cent and 18.00 per cent, respectively. Even though export volume and total value reflected high volatility, export pricing demonstrated moderate instability. In comparison with period I, period II experienced a significant decline in quantity, value and price instability for export destinations of Indian raisins. Furthermore, destination-specific evaluations identified Vietnam as the most stable market overall for quantity (CDVI of 29.17 per cent) and value CDVI of 31.70 per cent) whereas Malaysia recorded the lowest price instability with CDVI of 13.71 per cent, followed closely by Vietnam at 15.07 per cent.
