Mutation point and trend analysis of mango exports from India

Abstract:

Mango is one of the most important fruit crops in India and plays a significant role in the country's horticultural exports. The present study was undertaken to identify mutation points and examine trends in India's mango exports during the period 2005-2024 using time-series data on export quantity and value collected from Trade Map. Pettitt’s test, Buishand Range test and Standard Normal Homogeneity (SNH) test were employed to detect structural changes, while the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to assess the direction and magnitude of trends. The findings consistently identified 2014 as a significant mutation year for export quantity, whereas export value showed only marginal indications of a structural change around 2016. Export quantity showed a significant annual decline of 8.44 thousand tonnes, while export value showed non-significant and unstable fluctuations. Among the fitted trend models, the quadratic model provided the best fit for export quantity, while export value exhibited low predictability. The findings highlight a declining trend in export quantity and export value was highly variable, underscoring the importance of effective trade strategies and quality improvement measures to enhance the competitiveness of India’s mango exports globally.