Vol. 8, Issue 1, Part C (2026)

The production of rice requires to be elevated to meet the demand for growing population. As the cropping area is shrinking due to urbanization, biotic and abiotic stress; there are two ways through which the production can be enhanced. One method with development of HYVs in accordance with micro climate and other one diminishing the crop loss through biotic stresses like pest, disease etc. This study has focused on prediction of pest induced yield loss for future based on past time series data, using Holt’s Damped Trend method. Firstly, by using Dhaliwal method, yield loss due to pest in rice is obtained from 2001-2018. Using these data, Holt’s damped trend method for prediction is carried out. The best parameter combination is selected based on their performance on training and testing data set of yield loss due to pest and the combination with least error has been selected for this data. The parameter combination α=0.7, β=1, φ=0.7 has least information criteria and error metrices. Based on the choosen parameters, prediction for next seven years has been carried out along with their confidence interval.